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INTRODUCTION
Predicting the influence of a new technology on market products and services is clearly more art than science. The seemingly endless number of variables and the lack of knowledge about the interactions among them underlie the difficulty in assessing the potential of new technology. Selecting research topics for funding is more challenging because the outcome is not certain.
The Program included this Element to assess the market potential for products or services that might be created from the research results. The Commission requested that a broad approach to assessment be taken by developing a comprehensive method for evaluating the potential energy savings from buildings related research under the PIER Program. This project was the result of many communication exchanges between the research team and the Commission project managers. The objective of project was to develop a comprehensive impact assessment framework with universal applicability of any PIER buildings-related project whose goal it is to reduce energy consumption and/or electric peak demand.
6-6. DEVELOPMENT OF AN IMPACT ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK
Development of the Impact Assessment Framework was performed by Battelle
with significant support from Nexant, and with consultation from Xenergy.
The project objective was to develop and demonstrate an impact assessment
framework that explicitly identifies the assumptions and inputs to the
assessment process and evaluates technologies for energy savings potential.
The assessment framework developed for the commercial building sector is
composed of four components 1) Product Characterization, 2) Market Segmentation,
3) Market Penetration, and 4) Analysis of Impacts. A graphical user interface
was developed to demonstrate the use of the framework based on data from
the PG&E CEUS database. A more comprehensive database is under development
through another Commission project. When that database is complete, the
framework will provide a starting point for the Commission to assess all
projects within Buildings Area of the PIER Program.
Research Team: M. Kintner-Meyer, D. Anderson, and D. Hostick, with Battelle Memorial
Institute, Pacific Northwest Division, performed this research project.
Mike Rufo and Fred Coito with Xenergy provided consultation regarding development
of the market segmentation framework. Ken Barnes with Nexant, Inc. developed
the database and database queries to support the examples used to exercise
the framework.
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